Change-point analysis of the demand for medicines

Abstract

Abstract During the last years, the model of change points has been widely used to predict data series and it can be demonstrated success cases of its application in diverse areas. However, the usefulness of the theory of the points of change for the prognosis of the demand for medicines has not been proven. In this research with a quantitative approach, the use of the theory of points of change in prognosis of the demand for medicines in Healthcare Providers in Colombia is analyzed. The forecasts obtained with the theory of change point are compared with the forecasts obtained with traditional method of Holt-Winters. As a result of this study, the “best” model is identified and recommendations for the implementation of the proposed model are presented. This study is useful for administrators of entities providing health services interested in optimizing budget allocation and improving the inventory planning strategy. The results presented in this article, will allow to incorporate the results of the methodology in the field of modeling of systems of inventories of medicines.