Analysis of the impact of threats to change and block responses of experts in online survey systems

Abstract

Abstract The authors of the article analyze the impact of information security threats when conducting online surveys with an uncertain number of respondents. The article discusses threats to change responses of experts and block responses of experts. Finding the probability of making an erroneous decision using the methods of probability theory is a very difficult task. The authors propose using the Monte Carlo method as a solution. A software module that implements this method has been developed. We obtained the dependence of the probability of making an erroneous decision on the probability of changing the answers of experts, the probability of blocking the answers of experts and the number of respondents. The authors showed that there are critical values for the probability of changes in the responses of experts. These values determine the boundaries of ranges with different characteristics of the dependence of the probability of making an erroneous decision. The authors proposed two methods for finding one of the critical values. In conclusion, the authors formulated conditions that reduce the probability of making an erroneous decision.