Stochastic analysis of dynamic processes in the solar activity

Abstract

Abstract Natural processes existing in complex objects of inanimate and living matter are of a stochastic and non-equilibrium nature. The main problem in the study of such systems is to determine the value of entropy as a quantitative measure of the uncertainty and systematicity of states of dynamical systems in different phase spaces. This paper presents a new method for analyzing active processes of solar dynamics using the theory of non-Markov random discrete processes (NMRDP). The NMRDP theory is based on the Zwanzig-Mori kinetic equations in a finite-difference discrete interpretation. This is consistent with the concept of non-equilibrium statistical condensed matter physics. Qualitative information about the set of behavioral patterns, relaxation processes, dynamic characteristics and internal properties of solar activity can be obtained using NMRDP modeling by the author’s methodological approach developed in this work. This approach is focused on the analysis of spectral frequency memory functions, dynamic orthogonal parameters, phase transformations, relaxation and kinetic processes and self-organization in complex physical systems. In this work, for modeling NMRDP, the author’s software package APSASA (automated program for solar activity stochastic analysis) was used, which also allows predicting the trend of solar activity for a limited period of time. Modeling NMRDP associated with active processes occurring on the Sun made it possible to build a mathematical model with whose help it is possible to study the regularities and randomness of stochastic processes, as well as to reveal the patterns arising from the recurrence and periodicity of solar activity.