Numerical modelling of the process of implementing media educational projects using GERT networks

Abstract

Abstract The purpose of this work was to test the applicability of the methods for work networks based on the stochastic GERT networks analysing to the analysis and forecasting of the executing similar projects processes. The experimental object was the data on the implementation of media education projects by students of the general education lyceum. The processes were modelled using the graphical BPMN methodology. For numerical prediction, we used formulas and algorithms for constructing and analysing stochastic GERT networks. The GERT network, built on the basis of data analysis of the implemented media educational projects, made it possible to calculate the probability distribution density of the time of the media project execution, as well as to calculate the first central moments of the distribution law-significant in practice indicators of the average execution time of a media project, taking into account loops and cycles, as well as an indicator of the variance of the project execution time, which makes it possible to estimate the spread of the execution time of the same type of media projects. The result obtained allows us to speak about the applicability of the GERT-model for predicting the numerical indicators of models of business processes for executing projects of the same type as an alternative to statistical simulation.