Spatial Distribution Pattern and Prediction of Pension Pressure in Provinces of China

Abstract

Abstract Along with China stepping into the aging society, pension pressure has become a social livelihood issue. This paper firstly defines the concept of pension pressure standing on the employment. On this basis, the research uses the spatial autocorrelation and standard deviation ellipse to study the spatial distribution pattern and evolution characteristics of pension pressure. Furthermore, the study constructs the GM (1,1) model to predict the trend of pension pressure. Based on the data collected from 31 provinces from 1995 to 2016, it found out that the pension pressure in China shows a slow upward trend generally. The growth of the pension pressure has a spatial agglomeration effect, and the pension pressure is characterized by a general pattern of divergent spatial distribution, mainly in the East-West direction and supplemented by the North-South direction. In addition, the future distribution pattern of pension pressure in China will shift from “Northeast to Southwest” to “North to South”, and it will basically become stable in the future.