Hierarchical sensitivity study on the aeroelastic stability of the IEA 15 MW reference wind turbine

Abstract

Abstract Increased rotor size and blade flexibility are leading to new stability characteristics for current and future wind turbines. Numerical aeroelastic models are an essential tool to understand these new mechanisms and to design next-generation wind turbines suitably. A comprehensive understanding of how model input parameters influence the stability analysis will enhance the confidence in these simulations. This article presents a study on the sensitivity of uncertain parameters on aeroelastic stability predictions of the IEA 15 MW turbine model in HAWCStab2. It uses a hierarchical approach to handle the large number of investigated model parameters. Relevant uncertainties are identified through one-at-a-time and elementary effects analyses first. The remaining parameters are fed into a variance-based uncertainty quantification (UQ), that employs polynomial chaos expansion representations as surrogates for a full nonlinear description of the sensitivities. A robust post-processing of the stability analysis results is the main challenge of the presented methodology, but it is shown how the UQ process can still be used to explore the parameter space effectively. The presented study shows that the structural blade properties have the highest sensitivity and that a set of relatively small parameter variations can lead to unstable behavior of the reference model.