Methodology of probabilistic modelling of the current activity of industrial enterprises

Abstract

Abstract The article discusses the approach to the methodology of modeling and forecasting the production activities of industrial enterprises. It uses mathematical probability theory. All the studies are made by the example of the furniture industry enterprises. This approach enables to carry out effective planning of production and commercial activities. It also contributes to an increase in the effectiveness of marketing activities and decision making. The presented results have been achieved through the use of mathematical models and tools based on the application of the approach to defining the probability of non-zero demand for the goods. The developed mathematical models make it possible to prepare the initial data and make effective management decisions based on them in the form of plans and programs of industrial activities in a quick manner. The enterprises producing goods or providing services in a large assortment are forced to conduct a comparative mathematical analysis of the business units of the industrial enterprise in order to make a decision on the distribution of investment resources. The priority field of enterprise activity (which brings the maximum profit) receives the maximum financial investments.