Sensitivity analysis of heating a typical UK dwelling and implications for retrofit design

Abstract

Abstract The aim of this research is to quantify the impact of heating set point on space heating energy demand for a typical UK dwelling. Retrofit includes fabric energy efficiency improvements. Energy performance certificates (EPCs) inform the householder of typical savings per measure, but this has previously been found to inaccurately estimate space heating energy demand, leading to errors in 'typical savings' presented to householders. The most sensitive inputs have been found to be temperature set point, followed by fabric efficiency. The BREDEM methodology assumes a temperature of 21°C for nine hours a day, rather than ~16°C and ~20°C found in research. The methods used to inform this study are local sensitivity analysis of the domestic energy model, based on a typical dwelling example with calibrated inputs. This is done using an open calibrated Python model, based on BREDEM. The impact of heating patterns on space heating energy demand are modelled pre retrofit; according to differing heating set points, following wall and loft fabric upgrade and full fabric upgrade. The BREDEM heating set point assumptions lead to space heating energy demand predicted ~50-100 kWh/m2/yr higher than real heating set points. Implications for retrofit design and EPCs are discussed.