Anti-persistent adherence dynamic of the COVID-19 vaccines

Abstract

Abstract This research explores the multifractal dynamics of time series of the daily number of vaccinees for COVID-19, considering six European countries (Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece and Italy) using the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuations Analysis (MF-DFA). We calculate the multifractal spectrum f(α) and apply a fourth-degree polynomial regression fit to estimate the complexity parameters that describe the degree of multifractality of the underlying process. We found that the multifractal dynamics of all these countries are characterized by strongly anti-persistent behavior (α 0 < 0.5) a lower degree of multifractality, and small fluctuations are dominant in the multifractal spectrum. From an immunization perspective, it means that a panorama that encompasses the population’s behaviour is marked by the dynamics of anti-persistent adherence to COVID-19 vaccines. Our findings confirm that the period of immunization of the population that adhered to the vaccination campaigns is short and that the application of new doses of vaccines must obey this phenomenology to keep people safe. In addition, we used the multifractal efficiency coefficient to rank countries that are most proactive in developing campaigns that promote greater adherence and loyalty to COVID-19 vaccines. Our findings indicate that Germany, Belgium and France were more efficient than Greece, Denmark and Italy.