Vulnerability of vegetation activities to drought in Central Asia

Abstract

Abstract Central Asia (CA) is a continental region that is sensitive to water conditions. Hence, drought has one of the primary effects on the vegetation activities in CA and could vary with climate change. However, it is still unclear how the drought vulnerability of vegetation differs among vegetation types and varies with drought scales in CA. Therefore, this paper studied the drought vulnerability of vegetation in CA from 1982–2015. Droughts were detected by using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), and the vegetation activities were represented by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Only the areas with no change in vegetation types were analyzed, in order to avoid interference with changes in land use. Results showed that both the duration and intensity of droughts were higher in the central, southwestern, and northeastern CA. The growing season (April–October) NDVI decreased by −0.0095 ± 0.0065 per decade in response to drying trends of 0.21 ± 0.22 unit aridity index per decade in these drought-concentrated regions. Forests and savannas/woody savannas were more vulnerable to drought from July–September, and their vulnerabilities were higher to droughts with longer time scales. Shrublands and grasslands were more vulnerable to drought from April–May and May–September, respectively, and the vulnerabilities during these months were higher for the droughts at 6–12 months scales. Twelve months was the optimal (most vulnerable) drought scale for the shrublands and grasslands and the secondary drought scale for the savannas/woody savannas. Further analysis of the vulnerability of vegetation to 12 months drought found that it generally increased with the increase of the drought magnitude (duration or intensity) to some peak values and then decreased. However, the vulnerability of forests and savannas/woody savannas increased with the drought intensity. Results would help for the drought risk assessment of vegetation in CA.