An unexpected negative feedback between climate change and eutrophication: higher temperatures increase denitrification and buffer nitrogen loads in the Po River (Northern Italy)

Abstract

Abstract Temperature is one of the most fundamental drivers governing microbial nitrogen (N) dynamics in rivers; however, the effect of climate change-induced warming on N processing has not been sufficiently addressed. Here, annual, and seasonal (spring and summer) N loads exported from the Po River watershed (Northern Italy), a worldwide hotspot of eutrophication and nitrate pollution, are investigated in relation to water temperature trends over the last three decades (1992–2019). Despite large inter-annual variations, from the early 1990s, the Po River experienced a significant reduction in total N loads (−30%) represented mainly by nitrate, although agricultural N surplus in croplands and other watershed conditions have remained constant. In parallel, the Po River water is steadily warming (+0.11 °C yr−1, for average annual temperature) and the number of warm days is increasing (+50%, in the spring–summer period). The inverse relationship between water temperature and N loads strongly indicated that the higher temperatures have boosted the denitrification capacity of river sediments along the lowland reaches. Overall, over the last three decades, annual total N loads declined by around one-third due to a near 3 °C increase in temperature and this evidence was even more marked for the summer season (−45% for total N loads and +3.5 °C for temperature). Based on these observations, it is suggested that near-term effects of climate change, i.e. warming and an increase in the duration of low-flow periods in rivers, may have negative feedback on eutrophication, contributing to partially buffer the N export during the most sensitive period for eutrophication.