Linkage between anomalies of pre-summer thawing of frozen soil over the Tibetan Plateau and summer precipitation in East Asia

Abstract

Abstract The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is sensitive to climate change in the land–atmosphere coupling mechanism due to its complex topographic features and unique geographic location. This study explored the teleconnection between pre-summer thawing of frozen soil over the TP and summer precipitation in East Asia in the Meiyu–Baiu rainy season (June, July) from 1981 to 2019 using maximum covariance analysis (MCA). The precipitation fields forced by thawing of frozen soil were calculated by the coupled manifold technique. The variations in East Asian precipitation are significantly impacted by thawing of frozen soil over the TP, with a variance explained ratio in the surrounding middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River (MLYR) of around 10%–20%. The MCA analysis also revealed that the thickness of pre-summer frozen soil thawing had a positive relationship with summer precipitation in the MLYR and southern Japan (fraction = 0.59, correlation ≈ 0.99). To find out the possible mechanism, composite analyses were conducted on atmospheric and surface components with reanalysis products. The analysis results suggested that more (less) frozen soil thawing would increase (decrease) the sensible heat and land surface temperature with enhanced (weakened) surface diabatic heating over the TP. Then, the positive (negative) surface diabatic heating would result in an enhanced (weakened) South Asia High extending eastward followed by stronger (weaker) upper troposphere (200 hPa) westerlies, as well as the West North Pacific Subtropical High extending westward. As a result, the northeastward movement of the integrated vapor transport intensified (weakened) with the westward extension (eastward retreat) of the Meiyu–Baiu rain belt, leading to more (less) precipitation in the MLYR and southern Japan. It is thus suggested that pre-summer thawing of frozen soil over the TP could play a vital role in regulating East Asian summer precipitation and movement of the Meiyu–Baiu rain belt.