Retreating winter and strengthening autumn Mediterranean influence on extreme precipitation in the Southwestern Alps over the last 60 years

Abstract

Abstract This article analyzes the large-scale circulations producing daily precipitation extremes in the Southwestern Alps and their trends from 1958 to 2017. We consider a high-resolution precipitation data set of 1 × 1 km2 and the weather patterns associated to the precipitation seasonal maxima at each grid point. The high-resolution allows us to analyze in details the atmospheric influences triggering seasonal maxima. Four influences are considered—the Atlantic influence, the Mediterranean influence, the northeast circulation and the Anticyclonic situation. We show that influences on maxima are very well organized in space but their organization depends on the season. Maxima are very mainly triggered by two types of influences in the region—the Atlantic influence and the Mediterranean influence. Trends in weather patterns producing maxima are also organized in space, with opposite trends for the Atlantic and the Mediterranean influences. The Mediterranean influence retreated very significantly over the period in winter and spring, while the Atlantic influence significantly extended further south. In autumn the Mediterranean influence strengthened where it was already dominant.