Increasing lifetime maximum intensity of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific

Abstract

Abstract The long-term trend in the annual mean lifetime maximum intensity (LMI) of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones (RI-TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) is investigated in this study. During 1970–2019, a notable upward trend is observed in the average RI-TC LMI, which is primarily linked to a significant increase in the mean intensification rate prior to LMI. This intensification rate increase is caused by an increase in the mean magnitude of RI cases. By contrast there is no significant change in the RI ratio, which is calculated as the proportion of 24 h RI records to all 24 h records before a RI-TC reaches its LMI. Furthermore, there is a significantly greater RI magnitude west of 155° E, where the vast majority of RI cases occur on average. Over this region, there are significant increases in sea surface temperatures, TC heat potential, 700–500 hPa relative humidity and 200 hPa divergence during 1970–2019. Only a small region of significantly reduced 850–200 hPa vertical wind shear is observed to the northeast of the Philippines from 1970–2019. These results imply that both thermodynamic and dynamic variables play an important role in modulating RI magnitude over the WNP.