Reconstructing spring sea ice concentration in the Chukchi Sea over recent centuries: insights into the application of the PIP25 index

Abstract

Abstract In this study, we aimed to reconstruct spring (April–June) sea ice changes in the western Arctic Ocean over recent centuries (ca. the last 250 years) by measuring biomarker distributions in a multicore (ARA01B-03MUC) retrieved from the Chukchi Shelf region and to evaluate outcomes against known or modelled estimates of sea ice conditions. Specifically, we analyzed for the Arctic sea ice proxy IP25 and assessed the suitability of a further highly branched isoprenoid (HBI) lipid (HBI III), epi-brassicasterol, and dinosterol as complementary biomarkers for use with the so-called phytoplankton marker-IP25 index (PIP25; PIIIIP25, PBIP25, and PDIP25, respectively). The presence of IP25 throughout core ARA01B-03MUC confirms the occurrence of seasonal sea ice at the study site over recent centuries. From a semi-quantitative perspective, all three PIP25 indices gave different trends, with some dependence on the balance factor c, a term used in the calculation of the PIP25 index. PIIIIP25-derived spring sea ice concentration (SpSIC) estimates using a c value of 0.63, determined previously from analysis of Barents Sea surface sediments, were likely most reliable, since SpSIC values were high throughout the record (SpSIC > 78%), consistent with the modern context for the Chukchi Sea and the mean SpSIC record of the 41 CMIP5 climate models over recent centuries. PBIP25-based SpSIC estimates were also high (SpSIC 108%−127%), albeit somewhat over-estimated, when using a c value of 0.023 obtained from a pan-Arctic distribution of surface sediments. In contrast, PDIP25 values using a pan-Arctic c value of 0.11, and PIP25 data based on the mean biomarker concentrations from ARA01B-03MUC, largely underestimated sea ice conditions (SpSIC as low as 13%), and exhibited poor agreement with instrumental records or model outputs. On the other hand, PBIP25 values using a c factor based on mean IP25 and epi-brassicasterol concentrations exhibited a decline towards the core top, which resembled recent decreasing changes in summer sea ice conditions for the Chukchi Sea; however, further work is needed to test the broader spatial generality of this observation.