Rapid attribution of the record-breaking heatwave event in North China in June 2023 and future risks

Abstract

Abstract A record-breaking heatwave event occurred in North China from 22 to 24 June 2023, with temperatures >40 °C at many meteorological stations. This marked the first time that Beijing had reached or exceeded 40 °C for three consecutive days. However, the extent to which such exceptional heatwave events are related to anthropogenic climate change remains unclear. It is also unclear how frequent and intense such strong heatwave events will be in the future. We carried out a rapid attribution analysis to address these questions. Our findings show that the return period of this three-day heatwave event in North China is about 111 years (24.3, +∞) at the 2023 climate state. Both the empirical and coupled model approaches consistently showed that the intensity of 2023-like three-day heatwave events has significantly increased by at least 1.0 °C (range 0.8 °C–1.3 °C) due to anthropogenic climate change. Future projections indicate that 2023-like events in North China are likely to occur at least 1.6 (range 1.3–2.1) times throughout the remainder of this century and be 0.5 °C (range 0.2 °C–0.8 °C) more intense than those under the 2023 climate even if carbon neutrality is achieved based on the very low CO2 emissions scenario simulations. For the intermediate emissions scenario, the occurrence probability of 2023-like events in the North China region by the end of this century will be 5.5 (range 4.9–6.3) times those under the 2023 climate, with an intensity 2.9 °C (range 2.4 °C–3.1 °C) higher than those under the 2023 climate. These findings highlight the need for adaptation measures to address the occurrence of 2023-like three-day heatwaves in North China in June even if carbon neutrality is achieved.