Interactions between hot and dry fuel conditions and vegetation dynamics in the 2017 fire season in Portugal

Abstract

Abstract Wildfires are a serious threat to ecosystems and human. In Portugal, during 2017, a catastrophic fire season burned more than 500 000 hectares and caused the death of more than 100 people. Previous studies have shown that hot and dry fuel conditions promoted widespread propagation of wildfires. However, burned area (BA) and mega-fires, such as the 2017 ones, depend not just on favourable meteorological conditions, but also on fuel accumulation and dryness. In this study, we will assess the influence of spring meteorological conditions on fire season BA, through their effects on fuel accumulation and dryness. Using satellite-based data, we show that the association of higher temperatures and water availability in spring can increase the risk of summer wildfires propagation, flammability and intensity through their influence on vegetation gross productivity. This study highlights the important role of fuel accumulation during the growing season in fire-prone regions like Portugal. Our results imply that fuel management may be an effective way to mitigate extreme fire seasons associated with warmer and drier conditions in the future.