Regional temperature extremes and vulnerability under net zero CO2 emissions

Abstract

Abstract Signatories to the Paris Agreement have pledged to keep global warming to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and preferably below 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Beyond over-shooting Paris Agreement warming levels followed by net negative emissions, achieving a state of net zero carbon dioxide emissions is required to satisfy Paris Agreement warming goals. Research on climate changes under net zero CO2 emissions is very limited to date with no comprehensive analysis of changes in extremes. In this study, we use results from Earth System Models in the zero emissions commitment model intercomparison project to understand regional mean-state climate change patterns during a 100 year period following carbon dioxide emissions cessation. We also perform an initial study of the evolution of hot and cold monthly temperature extremes after net zero CO2 emissions, including an assessment of how the change in frequency of temperature extremes affects areas of different levels of socioeconomic development based on regional Human Development Index (HDI). The results show that most land regions experience a fast and continuous cooling response following emissions cessation, with large areas of significant model agreement. In contrast, the Southern Ocean continues warming over the century after emissions cessation. The frequency of land-based local monthly high temperature extremes generally stays constant or decreases during the century after emissions cessation, however, decreases in heat extreme frequencies are generally less for locations with lower modern HDI than areas with higher HDI which suggests that inequality of climate change will remain an issue even after net zero CO2 emissions. There is an evident emergence of local monthly cold extremes following emissions cessation with most significant impact over high HDI mid- and high-latitude land regions.