The frequency of autumn western North Pacific tropical cyclone linking to spring western Pacific SST anomalies

Author:

Ma XuanORCID,Xie FeiORCID,Chen Xiaosong,Liu Na,Liang RizhouORCID

Abstract

Abstract Autumn typhoons, despite their lower occurrence rate, impose significant, and at times, greater economic impacts on Asia than summer typhoons. Accurately predicting the interannual variations in autumn typhoon frequency remains a persistent challenge. Our finding discovers a pattern of sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the western Pacific, termed the horseshoe-shaped mode (HWP), and finds a strong interannual correlation between the February–March SST anomalies in the western Pacific and September–October tropical cyclones (TCs) frequency in the western North Pacific. The February–March warming HWP triggers enhanced easterlies over the equatorial Pacific as a Kelvin wave response, strengthening the east-west SST gradient and, in turn, further intensifying the September–October HWP through positive feedback. The intensified September–October HWP could boost upwelling in the northwestern and southwestern Pacific and induce dynamic subsidence in the equatorial western Pacific, mirroring a localized reversal of Hadley-like circulation. This is accompanied by higher relative humidity, cloud cover, and longwave radiation over the western North Pacific, warming local SST and fostering TC formation. An SST-based statistical linear model could reproduce September–October TCs for both training and testing periods, demonstrating the reliability and stability of this linear model. Our results indicate that HWP could be an important indicator for improving TC prediction level.

Funder

National Natural Science Foundation of China

National Key Research and Development Program of China

China Postdoctoral Science Foundation

Publisher

IOP Publishing

Cited by 1 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3