Different responses of surface air temperature over Eurasia in early and late winter to the autumn Kara–Laptev Sea ice

Abstract

Abstract The Arctic climate is changing rapidly, along with intensified melting of sea ice, which has significant impacts on surface air temperature (SAT) in Eurasia. This study reveals that the subseasonal response of SAT to the autumn Kara–Laptev Sea ice (KLSIC) differs significantly between early and late winter. The response of SAT to KLSIC forms a warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern in early winter. Conversely, the negative anomaly response of SAT to KLSIC in late winter is only distributed in the band range of Eurasia, without significant positive SAT anomaly over the Arctic Ocean. After further examination of the separate physical mechanisms involved in early and late winter, it is found that a decrease in KLSIC in autumn can lead to a strengthened Ural high and Siberian high in the Arctic–Eurasia region, which is conducive to cold events in the mid-latitudes of Eurasia in early winter. For late winter, a westward shift in the response of atmospheric circulation to KLSIC leads to a negative anomaly feedback of North Sea surface temperature, which triggers the propagation of Rossby waves to the Sea of Japan through the wave activity flux. Meanwhile, the deep trough of East Asia is strengthened and extends to the southeast, guiding northern cold air to the western Pacific. Our results highlight that different subseasonal effects of sea ice should be considered in Eurasian climate prediction, rather than only consider the effects in winter mean.