Where does the irrigated water in the Tarim Basin go? A hydrological analysis of water budgets and atmospheric transport

Abstract

Abstract Irrigated agriculture plays a crucial role in the local economic and social development of the Tarim Basin (TB), but its sustainability is threatened by water scarcity due to the arid environment. In this study, we investigate the impact of irrigation on the atmospheric hydrological cycle in the region using the weather research and forecast model. We conduct simulations for a three month period under two scenarios: present-day and future warming. Our results show that, in the present-day scenario, 90.5% of irrigated water is transported via atmospheric hydrological processes, with precipitation and water vapor transport being the dominant components. However, in the future warming scenario, more atmospheric water (45.2%) will leave the area due to weakened wind regimes, resulting in significant water loss. Furthermore, our analysis using the HYbrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model indicates that irrigation contributes to extreme rainfall events, and the southwestern TB is a primary destination for irrigated water. Our findings highlight the urgency of addressing the sustainability of irrigated agriculture and local water resources in the face of impending global warming.