Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment
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Published:2020-12-01
Issue:12
Volume:15
Page:124075
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ISSN:1748-9326
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Container-title:Environmental Research Letters
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language:
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Short-container-title:Environ. Res. Lett.
Author:
Sayedi Sayedeh SaraORCID, Abbott Benjamin WORCID, Thornton Brett FORCID, Frederick Jennifer MORCID, Vonk Jorien EORCID, Overduin Paul, Schädel ChristinaORCID, Schuur Edward A G, Bourbonnais Annie, Demidov Nikita, Gavrilov Anatoly, He ShengpingORCID, Hugelius Gustaf, Jakobsson Martin, Jones Miriam CORCID, Joung DongJooORCID, Kraev Gleb, Macdonald Robie W, David McGuire A, Mu Cuicui, O’Regan MattORCID, Schreiner Kathryn M, Stranne ChristianORCID, Pizhankova Elena, Vasiliev AlexanderORCID, Westermann Sebastian, Zarnetske Jay PORCID, Zhang Tingjun, Ghandehari MehranORCID, Baeumler SarahORCID, Brown Brian C, Frei Rebecca J
Abstract
Abstract
The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ∼560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO2e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO2e by 2300 (45–590), with ∼30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.
Funder
Russian Science Foundation Permafrost Carbon Network through the National Science Foundation (NSF) Study of Environmental Arctic Change Swedish Science Foundation National Science Foundation National Key R&D Program of China Brigham Young University
Subject
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,General Environmental Science,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Cited by
31 articles.
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