Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation

Abstract

Abstract Climate warming is intensifying the global water cycle, including the rate of fresh water flux between the atmosphere and the surface, determined by precipitation minus evaporation (P−E). Surpluses or deficits of fresh water impact societies and ecosystems, so it is important to monitor and understand how and why P−E patterns and their seasonal range are changing across the globe. Here, annual maximum and minimum P−E and their changes are diagnosed globally over land and ocean using observation-based datasets and CMIP6 climate model experiments covering 1950–2100. Seasonal minimum P−E is negative across much of the globe, apart from the Arctic, mid-latitude oceans and the tropical warm pool. In the global mean, P−E maximum increases and P−E minimum decreases by around 3%–4% per ∘C of global warming from 1995–2014 to 2080–2100 in the ensemble mean of an intermediate greenhouse gas emission scenario. Over land, there is less coherence across the 1960–2020 datasets, but an increase in the seasonal range in P−E emerges in future projections. Patterns of future changes in annual maximum and minimum P−E are qualitatively similar to present day trends with increases in maximum P−E in the equatorial belt and high-latitude regions and decreases in the subtropical subsidence zones. This adds confidence to future projections of a more variable and extreme water cycle but also highlights uncertainties in this response over land.