Climate-driven land surface phenology advance is overestimated due to ignoring land cover changes

Abstract

Abstract Global warming has led to earlier spring green-up dates (GUDs) in recent decades with significant consequences for global carbon and hydrologic cycles. In addition to changes in climate, land cover change (LCC), including interchanges between vegetation and non-vegetation, and among plants with different functional traits, may also affect GUD. Here, we analyzed how satellite-derived GUD from 1992 to 2020 was impacted by changes in temperature, precipitation, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), solar radiation, and LCC for the Northern Hemisphere (>30° N). While the climate variables had larger impact overall, variability in GUD was controlled by LCC for 6% of the Northern Hemisphere, with systematically earlier or later changes among transitions between different land cover types. These changes were found mainly along the southeastern coast of the United States, in Central-north Europe, and across northeastern China. We further showed that climate change attribution of earlier GUD during 1992–2020 was overestimated by three days when the impact of LCC was ignored. Our results deepen the understanding of how LCC impacts GUD variability and enables scientists to more accurately evaluate the impact of climate change on land surface phenology.