The disappearing Antilles Current dominates the weakening meridional heat transport in the North Atlantic Ocean under global warming

Abstract

Abstract The Antilles Current (AC) off the Bahamas Islands is an important component for both wind-driven and thermohaline circulation system in the North Atlantic. The evolution of AC intensity could exert substantial impacts on mid-latitude climate and surrounding environment. For instance, an anomalous weaker AC is found to decelerate the nutrient transport in the shelf regions, risking the deep-water corals. In addition, a weaker AC could reduce the poleward heat transport of the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Drift and further influence the climate in Western Europe. Based on nine high-resolution coupled climate models, we find a 3.8 Sv weakening of the AC, which is equivalent to 63% of its climatology transport during 1950–2050. The deceleration of AC introduces a −0.17 PW of heat transport decrement, dominating the total heat transport change across 26.5° N. Further analysis reveals that change of AC is mainly attributed to the evolution of thermohaline circulation in a changing climate and is partly influenced by wind stress curl in the North Atlantic. Our finding highlights the needs to establish a long-term monitoring network for the AC and a comprehensive understanding of associated impacts.