Spatial flows of ecosystem services under future climate and land-use changes

Abstract

Abstract Increasing global pressure on natural capital requires sustainable solutions to ensure long-term provision of ecosystem services (ES) which have complex flow dynamics. Although the importance of ES flows has been increasingly recognized during the past years, little is known about how they will be affected by future climate and land-use changes. Here, we integrated ES flows into a scenario-based assessment framework, and evaluated it by clarifying the local and distant effects of ES flows in the Black River basin, China. The spatiotemporal variations of ES flows were investigated by considering different land policies and climate scenarios, and the drivers of ES flow variations were explored. We found increasing inter-regional ES flows toward 2100. Compared to land-use change, the intra-regional flows were more sensitive to climate change, with greater shifts of flow size and synergistic areas identified under a moderate climatic forcing scenario with sustainable management strategies. Precipitation directly affected water retention flow, yet affected flood mitigation flow both directly and indirectly through changing vegetation cover, which was the major driver of soil retention flow. Biodiversity mediated the positive effects of precipitation and vegetation cover on soil retention flow. Our study highlights the importance of embracing the spatiotemporal features of ES flows in sustainable transboundary management and adaptation strategies.