The evolving roles of intensity and wet season timing in rainfall regimes surrounding the Red Sea

Abstract

Abstract The Red Sea is surrounded by a diverse mixture of climates and is spanned by opposite hydrologic end-uses and geopolitical states. Unique water supply management challenges on both sides (related to agricultural and trans-boundary conflict in East Africa, and to groundwater depletion in the Arabian Peninsula) are made more severe by a rising demand, which underscores the importance of understanding shifts in rainfall supply to aid effective action. In this study, we characterize the relative importance of rainfall intensities to annual rainfall, the onset and duration of wet seasons, and the (statistically significant) trends in each of these over the region from 1981 through 2020 using daily gridded (0.05°) precipitation estimates. Results show that heavy rainfall (above 20 mm d−1) does not necessarily benefit annual totals, as the wettest regions are shaped by moderate (between 5 and 20 mm d−1) rainfall coupled with prolonged wet seasons. Observed trends in annual rainfall are underlain by interactions between shifting wet season lengths and rainfall intensities. Wet season length increases for 26% of the region, dampening the inherent drying resulting from shifts toward less-intense rainfall, and bolstering the inherent wetting from shifts toward more-intense rainfall. Regions shifting toward less- (more-)intense rainfall without an expanding wet season generally show negative (insignificant) rainfall trends. This reveals an important control that wet-day frequency has over wet-day intensity alone in shaping annual rainfall changes. We emphasize that the large-scale distribution of these shifts and their regional importance should punctuate cooperative efforts in sustainable resource management and transboundary governance.