Modulation of the impact of winter-mean warm Arctic-cold Eurasia pattern on Eurasian cold extremes by the subseasonal variability

Abstract

Abstract Utilizing ERA5 data, this study provides evidence that both the winter-mean state and subseasonal variability (SSV) of the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern significantly influence the frequency of cold extremes in Eurasia. The positive phase of winter-mean WACE (WACEMean) or a stronger SSV of WACE (WACESSV) corresponds to a higher occurrence of cold extremes over central Eurasia and East Asia. Furthermore, the study reveals that the impact of WACEMean on the cold extremes is modulated by WACESSV. During years characterized by a positive WACEMean and enhanced WACESSV, the associated winter-mean anticyclonic anomalies, combined with amplified subseasonal circulation fluctuations over the northern Eurasia continent, contribute to a significant increase in the blocking frequency over the Ural–Siberia region. This, in turn, contributes to an intensified occurrence of cold extremes in central Eurasia and East Asia. In contrast, during the years with a positive WACEMean but reduced WACESSV, in the absence of significant changes in the subseasonal circulation fluctuations, the winter-mean anticyclonic anomalies over the northern Eurasia continent do not exert a significant impact on Ural–Siberian blocking frequency by themselves. Consequently, there are no notable anomalies in the frequency of cold extremes over central Eurasia and East Asia. Finally, this study reveals that the differences in the distribution of the frequency anomalies in the blocking between the two sets of years are attributed to the constructive and destructive superposition of anomalies in subseasonal circulation fluctuations related to the WACEMean and WACESSV.