A dynamic disastrous CGE model to optimize resource allocation in post-disaster economic recovery: post-typhoon in an urban agglomeration area, China

Abstract

Abstract Optimizing the allocation schemes of post-disaster recovery resources can promote the sustainable development of a regional economy. However, previous studies determined the inputs and allocation schemes of recovery resources based on direct economic (DE) loss while neglecting indirect economic (IDE) loss, which restricted economic recovery. This study considered DE and IDE loss, and used a dynamic disastrous computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate multiple scenarios with different inputs and allocation schemes to identify a better economic recovery strategy. Taking Super Typhoon Mangkhut’s landing in Guangdong Province in 2018 as an example, the results showed that the IDE loss had a long-term impact and dynamic accumulation without post-disaster recovery, reaching 15.25 times the DE loss by 2022. In the baseline scenario, the recovery resource inputs, including relief funds, reconstruction funds, and natural disaster commercial insurance, were limited, leading to a cumulative loss recovery rate of less than 2% in 2018–2022. According to our findings, recovery resources needed a 15-fold increase to recover to pre-disaster levels. Considering the impacts of sector connections on IDE loss, six allocation schemes were established based on DE loss, IDE loss, and industrial structure. Compared with the typical allocation scheme based on DE loss, allocating recovery resources according to the diffusion coefficient substantially improved the loss recovery rate and recovery resource utilization efficiency. The dynamic disastrous CGE model conducted multi-scenario simulations to identify the optimal recovery resource allocation scheme that supported rapid and efficient post-disaster economic recovery.