The effect of current and future maternal exposure to near-surface ozone on preterm birth in 30 European countries—an EU-wide health impact assessment

Abstract

Abstract Preterm birth is the largest contributor to neonatal mortality globally and it is also associated with several adverse health outcomes. Recent studies have found an association between maternal exposure to air pollution and an increased risk for preterm birth. As a constituent of air pollution, ozone is a highly reactive molecule with several negative health effects when present near earth’s surface. This health impact assessment aims to estimate the proportion of preterm births—in current and future situations—attributable to maternal ozone exposure in 30 European countries (EU30). A literature search was performed using relevant keywords, followed by meta-analysis with STATA software in which five studies investigating exposure-response relationship of interest were included. The attributable proportion, and number of cases, was modelled with the software AirQ+ against current and future European ozone concentrations. According to our meta-analysis, the relative risk for giving birth preterm was calculated to 1.027 (95% CI 1.009–1.046) per 10 μg m−3 increase in ozone concentration. This rendered 7.1% (95% CI 2.5–11.7) of preterm births attributable to maternal ozone exposure to in EU30 during 2010, which is equal to approximately 27 900 cases. By 2050, the projected decrease in ozone precursor emissions rendered an estimated 30% decrease of ozone attributable preterm births. Not taking emission change into account, due to climate change the ozone-related preterm birth burden might slightly increase by 2050 in Central and Southern Europe, and decrease in Eastern and Northern Europe. In summation, these numbers make a substantial impact on public health.