The effects of dietary changes in Europe on greenhouse gas emissions and agricultural incomes in Ireland and Denmark

Abstract

Abstract Livestock farming is one of the main sources of greenhouse gas emissions. In Europe, the agricultural sectors of Ireland and Denmark are the most livestock-intensive. Based on a scenario analysis using a computable general equilibrium model, we estimate the effects of dietary changes toward the recommendations of the EAT-Lancet Commission in Europe on the agricultural sector of Ireland and Denmark. Our results show that full adoption of the diet reduces agricultural emissions, particularly methane, with potential emission savings of 26.4% or 5.4 Mt CO2-equivalent in Ireland and 21.7%, or 1.9 Mt CO2-equivalent in Denmark. Global agricultural emissions decrease by 2.4% or 193.7 Mt CO2-equivalent. However, incomes in livestock farming fall. This is offset to varying degrees by gains in horticulture and trade dynamics, leading to different outcomes across regions. Policymakers should promote plant-based diets and monitor export dynamics to achieve effective emission reductions. Additionally, methane mitigation strategies should be integrated into climate plans. This study highlights the need for further research on country-specific environmental impacts and trade-offs associated with dietary changes.