Future fire risk under climate change and deforestation scenarios in tropical Borneo

Abstract

Abstract Fire in the tropical peatland forests of Borneo is an environmental issue interactioning with climate change and deforestation, and the consequences have local and global implications. While research has shown that fire severity and frequency are expected to increase with climate change, there is conflicting model and observational data as to the effect of deforestation on precipitation, which is a key metric for fire risk. To better understand the changes in fire risk from deforestation and climate change we ran simulations of the climate scenario RCP8.5 with and without total deforestation using regional climate model RegCM4. The output was then used for calculations of the fire weather index. We find that annual temperature change from deforestation at elevations above 500 m is 53% of the change over the 21st century in RCP8.5. Fire risk is significantly affected by both climate change and deforestation, despite some increases in precipitation from deforestation. While the multi model dry season (June–August) mean increases in fire risk are larger from elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, the increases in maximum fire risk are larger from deforestation. The altitude is a good predictor of fire risk change, with larger increases at more densely populated lower elevations where the peatlands are concentrated and smaller increases at higher elevations. Therefore, while deforestation generally causes a smaller increase in climate-related fire risk than climate change, its local control and heterogeneous effects compared to global carbon emissions makes it critical for climate mitigation policy. These high-resolution simulations provide a guide to the most vulnerable areas of Borneo from climatic increases in fire risk.