The value of early methane mitigation in preserving Arctic summer sea ice

Abstract

Abstract A growing body of literature has identified methane mitigation as a key component of limiting the rate and extent of global warming. However, little is known about how methane mitigation can benefit other critical aspects of the climate system. This study explores the value of early methane mitigation in addition to carbon dioxide mitigation in helping avert an approaching and concerning climate event: the near-complete loss of Arctic summer sea ice. While drastic cuts in carbon dioxide emissions will ultimately control the fate of Arctic summer sea ice, we show that simultaneous early deployment of feasible methane mitigation measures is essential to avoiding the loss of Arctic summer sea ice this century. In fact, the benefit of combined methane and carbon dioxide mitigation on reducing the likelihood of a seasonally ice-free Arctic can be greater than the simple sum of benefits from two independent greenhouse gas policies. The extent to which methane mitigation can help preserve Arctic summer sea ice depends on the implementation timeline. The benefit of methane mitigation is maximized when all technically feasible measures are implemented within this decade, and it decreases with each decade of delay in implementation due to its influence on end-of-century temperature. A key insight is that methane mitigation substantially lowers the risk of losing Arctic summer sea ice across varying levels of concomitant carbon dioxide mitigation. This analysis provides further evidence of the value of early methane mitigation and the need to consider its benefits beyond reduced global temperature and improved air quality.