Co-occurrence of climate-change induced and anthropogenic pressures in Central American key biodiversity areas

Abstract

Abstract Central America hosts many key biodiversity areas (KBAs), areas which represent unique and irreplaceable ecosystems of global importance for species conservation. However, large extents of these areas are not under legal protection and could be threatened by pressures from land use change (e.g. deforestation and agricultural expansion), high human population density (e.g. population growth and urban sprawl) and climate-driven biome shifts. Here, we simulated future biome stability under the influence of climate change across KBAs in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hot spot and combined the results with projections of land use and population density up to the end of the 21st century. We applied four forcing scenarios based on two global climate models (GFDL-ESM4 and IPSL-CM6A-LR) and two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0), which represent a range from low to high emission pathways. Our model projected decreased biome stability in 39%–46% of protected areas in KBAs, whereas this number even increased to 59%–60% for unprotected areas in KBAs (depending on the climate scenario). While human interferences in protected parts of KBAs are expected to be limited, large parts of unprotected areas in KBAs were projected to be pressured by multiple factors at once and are reason for concern. In particular, high human population pressures (>10 people km−2) emerged as a main threat over 30%–44% of the unprotected area in KBAs. These were largely accompanied by pressures from land use and sporadically reinforced by pressures from climate-driven biome shifts. Among the hot spots facing multiple high pressures are some of the last tropical dry and montane forest ecosystems in Central America, which stresses the need for urgent conservation action.