Author:
Cook John,Nuccitelli Dana,Green Sarah A,Richardson Mark,Winkler Bärbel,Painting Rob,Way Robert,Jacobs Peter,Skuce Andrew
Abstract
Abstract
We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming
(AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts
from 1991–2011 matching the topics ‘global climate change’ or ‘global warming’. We
find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7%
rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among
abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that
humans are causing global warming. In a second phase of this study, we invited
authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage
of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers
expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings
and authors’ self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a
position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the
number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of
the published research.
Subject
Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,General Environmental Science,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Cited by
784 articles.
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