Engaging with uncertainty and ambiguity through participatory ‘Adaptive Pathways’ approaches: scoping the literature

Abstract

Abstract Climate change adaptation planning demands decision-making under conditions of uncertainty and ambiguity. Adaptive Pathways (AP) planning is receiving increased attention as a method to guide adaptation planning in the face of uncertainties. The approach has been most extensively developed and applied in large, well-funded contexts such as the Thames Barrier and Dutch Delta program. However, the development of AP planning has focused much less on the parallel need for engaging with the challenge of ambiguity—that there are diverse, sometimes contending, knowledges, values, and stakes involved. A more nascent body of work has been exploring ways of engaging with both the uncertainties and ambiguities of adaptation through various participatory approaches to AP planning. This paper sought to synthesise insights from this emerging work. Examining the peer-reviewed and grey literature identified eight cases from four countries across five different policy issues that provided details of how they approached diverse participation. Analysis of this small suite of cases provided some key insights for those seeking to use participatory approaches to AP planning to engage with the inherent uncertainties and (arguably necessary) ambiguities of adaptation. The paper concludes with a call for greater publication of details regarding how participatory approaches to methods such as AP planning have been undertaken not just what was undertaken.