Mangrove Management Model Towards Net Zero Emissions in Sinjai Regency, South Sulawesi Province.

Abstract

Abstract Mangrove ecosystem plays a very vital role in mitigating climate change, through carbon CO2 absorption. Mangroves have high potential as carbon sequestration. Sinjai Regency is one of the pilot project locations for district/city involvement in the Regional Low Carbon Development Plan in South Sulawesi Province, so that the policy continues to be implemented in various regions. Sinjai Regency has a Mangrove Area which is the result of rehabilitation, but there are indications of changes in land cover that are used conventionally and not integrated, causing a reduction in the area of mangrove land cover. This study aims to analyze the behavior of the model using three policy scenarios with the concept of environmental sustainability in terms of the contribution of mangrove forest utilization to emission absorption. The method used to see changes in land use from year to year is the spatial analysis method, then the data is analyzed using a dynamic system. This research was conducted from January to June 2022 in Sinjai Regency, South Sulawesi Province. The results of the analysis reveal that there are several types of land use that have decreased in area and some have increased in area from year to year. The simulation results show that the proportion of emissions is inversely proportional to changes in mangrove area. The recommended policy is to maintain a minimum land area in the Mangrove Area which is a Protected and Conservation Area and carry out mangrove rehabilitation. The policy structure in the mangrove sector is divided into three parts, scenarios under baseline, fair and ambitious conditions. The mangrove sector in baseline conditions can achieve net zero emissions in 2041, while fair conditions are achieved in 2027 and ambitious conditions are achieved in 2024.