Quantification of cogeneration vulnerability towards the climate change: framework development

Abstract

Abstract Cogeneration is a vigorous measure to both decrease greenhouse gases emissions and improve an overall efficiency of the primary energy use. The climate change poses serious risks on operation of combined heat and power (CHP) plants due to the shifts in heating load patterns. This work investigates linking of the heating demand to the climate conditions and introduces a framework which can be used to develop an adaptation strategy for district heating systems. We demonstrate viability of the proposed approach by a case study assessing sensitivity of the CHP efficiency to the climate warming across China considering a modern combined-cycle gas-fired power plant with steam extraction. Outputs of the case study have demonstrated that CHP plants are generally more vulnerable towards the climate change in world regions with harsher climate conditions. An effective measure to increase resilience of the cogeneration sector is to account for anticipated climate change effects by applying adjustments to the reference climate inputs used when designing CHP plants.