A study of feedbacks and the formation of climate trends in the Arctic climate system

Abstract

Abstract The role of the ocean in the response of the climate system to an increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration is investigated by using a system of numerical models, ICMMG-PlaSim. The results of this study are summarized as follows: a) the ocean, to some extent (up to 20%), contributes to the increase in the annual mean state and to the decrease in the amplitude of seasonal oscillations (by 2-3%), which ultimately leads to insignificant changes in the summer period and to a significant mitigation of winter, b) the ocean stabilizes the annual mean state of the Arctic oscillation, making it practically unchanged with increasing CO2 concentration but, at the same time, contributes to the significant increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of this oscillation, c) the ocean enhances the temperature (or thermal) component of the seasonal variation associated with the appearance of additional areas freed from ice cover, with an additional average increase in the temperature of the atmosphere at the ice edge. Besides, the ocean enhances the seasonal oscillations of this component, so that the summer manifestations become much stronger, d) our tests have revealed that the role of the Arctic dipole under global warming is insignificant. These conclusions, though, may undergo significant changes under a more detailed consideration of carbon cycles in the atmosphere, ocean, and land.