Analysis of the spatio-temporal trend of sugar beet yield in Polissya and forest steppe ecoregions within Ukraine

Abstract

Abstract Ukraine has all the preconditions to increase the sugar beet yield, but, at present, comprehensive studies of spatio-temporal variation in the yield of sugar beet in the country have not been conducted. Though, such research is essential for the formation of crop management and yield forecasting in the future. The study aim is to analyze the general spatio-temporal dynamics of sugar beet yield within 10 regions of Ukraine, to identify the determinants of this trend and to characterize the areas of Ukraine regarding the sugar beet yield. Several statistical methods have been applied to the average sugar beet yields data which were provided by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. The Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to estimate the likelihood of a statistical model to the observed data. To calculate the global spatial autocorrelation coefficient, I-Moran statistics were computed using the Geoda095i program. A spatial database was created in ArcGIS 10.2. The average sugar beet yields within the study area ranged from 154.5 dt/ha to 495.7 dt/ha. The spatio-temporal trend of sugar beet yield has been described by a fourth-degree polynomial. It was determined that the overall trend of sugar beet yields is determined by agroeconomic and agro-technological factors, whose contribution to the yield variation is 72-96%. The areas where high sugar beet yields are ensured by favorable natural conditions, such as soil fertility, were identified, as well as areas with high crop yield potential provided that agricultural and breeding techniques are adequately used.