District-wise rainfall trend analysis by using non-parametric approach: A case of the State of Haryana, India

Abstract

Abstract The current water usage in different sectors and climate change have created pressure on the universal availability of essential resources for life. Rainfall is an integral part of the entire water cycle. Planning for sustainable water management requires proper forecasting of Rainfall, which further involves trend analysis. Mann-Kendall analysis and Sen Slope estimation are established non-parametric tests for trend forecasting in hydrological data. The present research analysed the monthly and annual rainfall data of all districts of the state of Haryana for 1991-2019 using Mann Kendall and Sen Slope techniques at 95%, 90% and 80% significance level. The results show that overall rainfall in Haryana has a decreasing trend. The decreasing trend is more prominent for February, June, July and August. August has the highest number of districts, showing a negative direction. Only a few sections show an increasing trend at a low significance level. The researchers suggest implementing stringent and integrated sustainable water management policies in the state of Haryana for water security in future in light of climate change.