Regional structure of oil export from Russia with differentiation by directions of supplies

Abstract

Abstract In the article, the authors analyzed the stable trends in the development of export oil supplies from Russia. The purpose of this article is a short-term forecast of the export of Russian oil with differentiations in the areas of supply. Based on the trend modeling until 2025, a forecast of the total volume of oil exports was made with differentiation in the directions of the supply of liquid hydrocarbons. For each direction of supply, forecast confidence intervals are defined within the limits of which Russian oil exports may be found. The authors showed that export supplies of oil to the energy market of the Asia-Pacific region will increase annually and exports to the European market will decline. The article shows that in the structure of oil supplies from Russia, the main growth is accounted for by foreign countries. In 2018, oil supplies in this direction amounted to 239.6 million tons. At the same time, the share of oil supplies to the European market is annually reduced, reaching only 64% in 2018 (80% in 2011), which is associated with the redirection of oil exports to the Asia-Pacific oil market, primarily to China. In this region, the demand for Russian oil is provided by its higher quality and corresponding chemical composition.