Choosing the appropriate Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments South East Asia (CORDEX-SEA) Model for drought future hazard assessment in the Bintan Island

Abstract

Abstract Management for sustainable water resources requires attention to future climate variability to anticipate the hazards that may arise, such as drought and flood. CORDEX-SEA is a downscale result of several gridded climate models that provide historical data and future projections for the Southeast Asia region useful to predict future climate, including the extreme event’s potential for deriving hazards. This research was done to determine which CORDEX-SEA climate model would be most suitable for predicting future drought risks, especially for small islands. This study uses statistical tests (probability density functions, skewness, etc.) in the historical period to determine the climate model that best fits the observed data, using Bintan Island as the case area. The model with historical data that best fits the observations will be considered the best model for predicting future (drought and flood) conditions. The corrected MPI and ensemble model of CORDEX-SEA showed well results in representing the drought index.