Determine the impact on fisheries by predicting the migration of fish near Scotland

Abstract

Abstract As global warming getting more severe in recent decades, the seawater temperature has also increased dramatically, which leads Atlantic fish heading north, so are two important economic fish spcies in Scotland, Scottish herring and mackerel. This paper discusses the impact of temperature change on the two species, and offer improvement methods for the small Scotland-based fishing companies. According the history temperature data in Scotland and the surrounding waters, we use a time series algorithm to predict the temperature range over next 50 years. Then establish a cost equation with parameters based on the relative distance and temperature. We obtain minimum cost from the predicted temperature and the relative distance from shoals. The result shows that in the next 50 years, a portion of the Scottish herring will move first northeast and then north, and the mackerel will move near the coast of Norway. The speed range of fish is obtained from previous model. Furthermore, maximum range of fishing time is obtained under different fish migration speed and fishing vessel speed. The best, worst and most likely case for fishing companies are defined and found. Which are they can fish before 2033 at lowest fish migration speed, they can not fish at the highest speed after 2051, and can not sell fresh fish anymore at 2040 respectively.