Quantitative Analysis and Prediction of the Worldwide COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

Abstract At present, the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly worldwide. As COVID-19 impacts societies, governments, communities, and individuals, we want to provide information for governments and people to understand the situation better. In this paper, we perform quantitative analysis and prediction of the global COVID-19 pandemic. First, we summarize worldwide confirmed, recovered, death, and active cases. Second, we select eight representative countries and analyze their confirmed and death cases with considering their populations. Third, we exploit the AR model in machine learning to predict the cases of these representative countries for the next 30 days. Our analysis and prediction show that some countries, including the United States, Spain, and Brazil, are in and will still be in the severe COVID-19 outbreak. This work can provide reference information for the prevention and control of COVID-19.