Impact of climate warming on the global biosphere

Abstract

Abstract The paper considers the interannual variability of the Living Planet Index (LPI) as a quantitative indicator that characterizes the degree of the global ecological crisis and reflects the general state of the global biosphere. The LPI dynamics since 1970 shows a more than twofold decrease in the number of populations of vertebrates. It is shown that such a decrease in LPI is mainly due to global climate warming. Thus, almost 80% of the LPI variability is accounted for by the global air temperature, and only the remaining 20% are associated with anthropogenic activity. A linear trend describes almost 94% of the LPI variability, and a non-linear trend describes 99%. From the linear trend equation it follows that in 2044 the LPI = 0. This means the onset of ecological collapse. However, it is more realistic that the linear decline of LPI ended, the stage of LPI stabilization in the range 0.30-0.40 began.