Author:
Malinin V,Averkiev A,Tsarev V,Istomin E,Petrov Y
Abstract
Abstract
Estimates of reaching an ice-free regime in September for different regions of the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere are presented on the basis of an additive statistical model that takes into account trends and cyclical fluctuations for the period 1979-2017. assuming that the current climate regime will be maintained in the future. It is shown that, due to the rather high stability of the trend estimates for the sea ice area in the Arctic regions, taking into account cyclical fluctuations does not go beyond the rms trend errors.
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