Spatial interaction modeling for assessment and determination Covid-19 handling policy in control of the pandemic spread between regions: A case study in the Surabaya Metropolitan Area

Abstract

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic influences human health and activities in many regions in Indonesia. East Java is an area with high community interaction, and mobility is one of the provinces that implements a regional restriction policy. The people mobility among regions makes it necessary to control the people interaction during the pandemic. The regional restriction strategy is one way to reduce and avoid the spread of COVID-19 in the Surabaya Metropolitan Area (Surabaya, Gresik, and Sidoarjo). This study aims to assess the COVID-19 control policy based on the interaction of activities between regions. The analysis uses a projected model of the spread of COVID-19 and a spatial interaction model based on the spread pattern of COVID-19 in the Surabaya Metropolitan Area. The research variables consisted of the health facilities, population, case data in a certain period, positive case data, patient treatment, and road network. The data were analyzed using the SurgeCDC Model and the Gravity Model furthermore. The results of the study provide the effectiveness of the policies to be carried out, predictions of the end of the pandemic in an area, descriptions of cases when using policy interventions, and conditions of spatial interaction. There needs to be an anticipation of the demand for health facilities such as medical personnel, medicine, and care rooms.