Analysis of reservoir flood control risk considering forecast uncertainty

Abstract

Abstract The reservoir flood control risk is closely related to the accuracy of hydrological forecasting. High-accuracy hydrological forecasting technology can greatly reduce the reservoir flood control risk. Based on the definition of reservoir flood control risk, the risk exceeding the check water level of the reservoir and the risk exceeding safe flow of downstream flood control object are selected as the risk index of reservoir flood control in this paper. The relationship between the standard deviation of the relative error and the certainty coefficient of the flood process is analyzed. According to the distribution law of the flood forecast error, the Monte Carlo method is used to generate multiple inflow scenarios to simulate the flood control operation of reservoirs and analyze the risk rate of reservoir flood control operation. Taking Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs as an example, the risk rate of exceeding the check water level of the reservoir and exceeding safe flow of downstream flood control object under different flood forecasting accuracy are calculated. It provides a scientific basis for flood forecasting and operation of Xiluodu and Xiangjiaba cascade reservoirs.