Assessment of Selected Agroclimatic Indices on Maize Yield Forecasting Under Climate Change in Nigeria

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates the relationship between climate, agroclimatic indices, and maize yield in Nigeria, focusing on diverse agroecological zones. Climate change is poised to significantly impact agricultural output. Analysis of historical data reveals varying sensitivities to weather changes in Nigeria’s agroecological regions. Regional climate impact assessments typically use annual statistical models, which may not capture sub-seasonal weather variations and often assume a constant relationship between crops and weather. Crop yield anomalies were created to remove non-weather-related influences from a time series dataset. Also, agroclimatic indices were incorporated into forecasting models as inputs to offer more relevant information for estimating crop output. The research demonstrates the critical role of climate factors such as rainfall in March and minimum temperatures in shaping maize yield in Nigeria. By expanding the scope to include a broader range of climate-related elements, this study has illustrated how incorporating agroclimatic indices into crop yield forecasting models can enhance forecast accuracy and reliability. The study reveals that different agroecological zones may face varied outcomes with regions in the south recording more negative maize yield anomalies as oppose to the north. The research underscores the complexity of the relationship between climate, agroclimatic indices, and crop yield in Nigeria. It provides essential insights for policymakers, farmers, and researchers to make informed decisions and develop strategies for ensuring food security and agricultural sustainability in the midst of a changing climate in Nigeria.